So did they make the China deal?

🌍 Macro & Market News

What a weekend. First, you have apparent progress between US and China trade talks. Then you have possible Russia and Ukraine peace talks. And finally there’s the ceasefire between India and Pakistan that maybe the US helped with and also maybe isn’t holding. So potentially a lot of impact on stability on the world stage.

📊 Portfolio Impact

If all that news is true and holds through Monday, it should goose the market. US/China tariffs are probably the main reason the S&P has been depressed since “Liberation Day”. Also certainly the Indo/Pak fighting has had an effect on Indian markets (which I hold via INDA and SMIN). But the devil’s in the details: What will the negotiated tariff rate with China be? Will it involve Taiwan, in which TSMC builds 90% of the world’s best AI chips?

Regarding India, will the ceasefire hold? Are we getting back to business as usual? Fearing the worst, I actually sold my Indian ETFs because they were approximately where I bought them at originally and my investment strategy didn’t factor in a war. Finally, a US/China deal could have big ramifications in my American reshoring bet, particularly with SOXX (a semiconductor ETF). All that aside, for my portfolio the top priority is to buy back into the Indian market.

📈 Predictions for Monday May 12

US markets will be positive due to optimism around the trade deal. Indian markets are harder to predict. Up because of the Pak ceasefire… but down because of the China deal. I’d bet up. Finally, my hedges will be down.

✅ Review from Yesterday

No predictions from Friday to review.

All Skeet Skeet

Not very original but it works on a Sunday afternoon

— Chanian-wala (@chanian-wala.bsky.social) 2025-05-11T22:52:14.313Z