They made a China deal

🌍 Macro & Market News

Details on the US/China deal were released: tariffs dropped to 30% (from like 145%!) for the next 90 days. That was enough to goose the market (see the next section for the impact on my portfolio).

In other news, Qatar gave Trump a plane. He said you’d “have to be stupid” to turn down a gift like that. But I think it just makes our country look even worse, which I can’t imagine helps our prospects in the long run, but what do I know?

📊 Portfolio Impact

What a day for my portfolio. SOXX jumped by +7.18%, likely because a US/China deal probably most directly impacts TSMC. In fact, nearly all my holdings were green, which exception to a few hedges (GLD, BND, and VGSH). In the end, my portfolio grew by +1.12% today. By comparison the S&P 500 grew by 3.26%, which just how diverse my strategy is.

The only thing I regret is India. I sold INDA and SMIN on Friday, anticipating the fighting between the two would get worse. It did, until it didn’t and there was the sudden ceasefire. Had I help onto those ETFs, I’d have done so much better today. I ended up re-purchasing them at the higher price today (and even more shares that before). This felt like an emotional move, but I don’t know if I shouldn’t have, given that war between nations is certainly a “macroeconomic” event and that’s one of the reasons I listed for selling a position.

I sold INDA and SMIN at a profit. I bought more shares later at a higher price. Bought low, sold high, bought high again. I am not sure that’s a move my CFA would make.

📈 Predictions for Tue May 13

Markets will be flat, though GLD may reverse it’s drop (regression to the mean?).

✅ Review from Yesterday

“US markets will be positive due to optimism around the trade deal. Indian markets are harder to predict. Up because of the Pak ceasefire… but down because of the China deal. I’d bet up. Finally, my hedges will be down.”

Correct that markets went up. Correct on my international play (INDA and SMIN popped). Mixed on my hedges: GLD dropped by -2.82%, BND and VGSH dropped but less so, and DBC, XLP, and IHF went up.

IHF likely reflected the broader market movement (it’s not a hedge in the same sense as GLD and BND).